Due Column betting is a type of fixed-profit betting strategy whereby a bettor increases the amount he wagers after each successive loss. This strategy is commonly used in various markets, such as betting on horse racing, betting on other sports and casino games. It is not a fairly popular strategy, but I know it well, so I will describe it for you.
To begin with, as usual, a little theory.
The main fallacy on which the “due column” method is based is that the player should win at some point. Unfortunately, he should but doesn’t have to. Due Column betting thus ignores the Law of Independent Trials, a statistical principle that proves that each trial has no effect on the outcome of the next trial.
I will give examples to make you understand it even better: when betting on horse races, the outcome of one race does not affect the outcome of the next race. Or in roulette, the results of past spins are often displayed. Players deceive themselves into thinking that these results indicate a pattern that they can use to predict the results of future spins. The Law of Independent Trials confirms that previous spins have no pattern in themselves, nor are they an indicator of what is to come.
Ignoring this principle, Due Column betting falls prey to the Gambler’s Fallacy of believing that if a certain event occurs more often than usual in a given period, it will occur less often in the future (and vice versa). This faulty reasoning can lead bettors to make irrational decisions based on past performance, rather than evaluating each event independently.
Well, no more theory. Now something that should interest you more. What I am going to write now is very important, but keep in mind that this is just my opinion. I’ve tried Due Column betting several times, and in my opinion it’s one of the stupidest things you can do. It is probably the most ridiculous betting strategy ever created. Seriously. Nevertheless, I will describe this system to you and you can decide for yourself if it is worth using it.
How Does Due Column Betting Work?
The way the system works is that in the first step you decide how much you want to win. Let it be, for example, $100. Your task is to make such a first bet so that your profit is $100. If you succeed, that’s the end of the system. You have reached your goal.
However, if you lose, you continue betting in such a way that you win $100 (your goal from the first step), as well as the amount of money you lost in the first bet. In this way, as the bettor loses each round, he has to increase the amount he has to bet to get the amount due, and he is increasingly likely to run out of all the money he started with. Pretty silly, right? Already here you can see that it takes a big budget to not be a loss.
In theory, the final winnings cover all the losses incurred in previous bets. But what if you lose 10 bets? Will you have enough funds to continue?
The term “Due Column” stems from the creation of tables by bettors to track their bets. A typical Due Column table looks like the one below. We’ll use $100 as our assumed winnings, as I mentioned earlier. To simplify this scenario, let’s assume that each bet has odds of 2 to 1. The initial bet is $50, because we want to win $100. The stake of the second bet is $75, because we need to win $100 + the $50 we lost in the first bet. The stake of the third bet is $113 because we want to win $100 + $125 that we lost in the first two bets. And so on.
| Wager # | Due Column | Bet Size |
| 1 | $100 | $50 |
| 2 | $150 | $75 |
| 3 | $225 | $113 |
| 4 | $338 | $169 |
| 5 | $507 | $254 |
| 6 | $761 | $381 |
| 7 | $1142 | $571 |
| 8 | $1713 | $857 |
| 9 | $2570 | $1285 |
| 10 | $3855 | $1928 |
The tenth bet is a stake of $1928 dollars. Do you think this is a good system? I don’t.
Due Column betting in different betting markets
Due Column betting is applied differently across various betting markets, each with its own characteristics and implications for the strategy’s effectiveness.
Fixed-odds betting
Due Column betting is most commonly used in fixed-odds betting, where the payout is determined at the time the bet is placed. In this market, the odds offered by the bookmaker have a direct impact on the potential success of the strategy.
The effectiveness of Due Column betting in fixed-odds betting depends on a certain win/loss ratio required to break even or make a profit. This ratio is determined by the odds and the size of the bets placed.
Spread betting
Due Column betting can also be applied to spread betting, in which bettors wager on the margin of victory rather than just the outcome of an event. In this context, the strategy involves adjusting the size of the bet based on previous results.
When using Due Column betting in spread betting, bettors must consider not only the outcome of the event, but also the accuracy of their predictions regarding the margin of victory.
Parimutuel betting
Due Column betting also applies to Parimutuel betting systems, such as horse racing, where the final payout is determined by the total amount bet on each outcome. However, this is even more complicated.
Comparing Due Column betting to other strategies
Due Column betting has some similarities to other betting strategies, such as the Martingale system and the Labouchère system, but there are also significant differences.
Martingale system
Both the Martingale system and Due Column betting involve increasing bets after losses in order to recover previous losses and make a profit. This commonality makes both strategies risky, as they require a large bankroll and can lead to significant losses if the losing streak continues.
However, the Martingale system differs from Due Column betting in the sequencing of bets. In the Martingale system, bets are doubled after each loss, while in Due Column betting there is a predetermined betting sequence that does not necessarily include doubling the stake after each loss.
Labouchère system
The Labouchère system, also known as the split Martingale or cancellation system, is another betting strategy that involves adjusting the size of bets based on previous results. In this system, bettors create a sequence of numbers and add the first and last numbers in the sequence to determine the size of the bet. If the bettor wins, the first and last numbers are removed from the sequence; if the bettor loses, the bet size is added to the end of the sequence.
While both the Labouchère system and Due Column betting involve predetermined betting sequences, they differ in how the sequences are constructed and adjusted based on the results of previous bets. The Labouchère system allows for more flexibility in creating the initial sequence and adjusts the sequence based on wins and losses
You can learn about how the Labouchère System works from my previous article.
Factors that affect the success of Due Column betting
Several factors can affect the success of Due Column betting, including Vigorish, the handicap skills of the bettor, and the use of specific betting techniques, such as Asian handicap betting.
Vigorish and its impact on profitability
Vigorish, or “vig,” is the commission charged by bookmakers. It is a key factor in determining the long-term profitability of any betting strategy, including Due Column betting. To break even using Due Column betting, the bettor must win a higher percentage of bets than would be required if there were no vigorish. For example, if the vigorish is 10%, the bettor must win 52.38% of his bets to break even, compared to only 50% in a hypothetical scenario without the vigorish.
Using Due Column betting with Asian handicap
Asian handicap betting is a form of spread betting designed to level the playing field between two teams or competitors. In this setup, the weaker side receives a virtual boost, while the stronger team needs to win by a specific margin for a successful wager. Integrating Due Column betting with Asian handicap techniques could enhance the strategy’s efficiency by capitalizing on better odds and lessening the influence of vigorish. Nonetheless, this method demands adept handicapping skills and a comprehensive grasp of both betting methodologies.
The Law of Large Numbers and Due Column betting
The Law of Large Numbers is a fundamental concept in probability theory that has a significant impact on the long-term success of Due Column betting.
What is the Law of Large Numbers?
The Law of Large Numbers states that as the number of trials or observations increases, the average of the results will approach the expected value. In other words, the more times an experiment is repeated, the closer the actual results will be to the predicted theoretical results.
In the context of betting, this means that in the case of a large number of bets, the actual win/loss ratio will approach the expected win/loss ratio based on the bettor’s odds and handicapping skills.
How does this relate to long-term success with Due Column betting?
For Due Column betting to be successful in the long run, the bettor must have a positive expected value (EV) for each bet. This means that the average return on each bet must be greater than the amount wagered, taking into account the vigorish and handicap advantage of the bettor.
According to the Law of Large Numbers, a bettor with a positive EV will eventually come out ahead if he makes enough bets. However, this does not guarantee short-term success, as random fluctuations and losses can occur in smaller samples. There is also the risk that your bankroll will run out, in which case the system will not be effective.
Risk of relying on short-term results
One of the primary concerns with Due Column betting is that individuals might be enticed to make judgments based on immediate outcomes rather than placing trust in the long term prospects of the strategy. This tendency can result in hasty decision making, such as prematurely abandoning the strategy after a series of losses or escalating bet amounts beyond what is ideal.
For those engaging in Due Column betting, it is crucial to grasp the volatility associated with short term results and adhere to a disciplined approach towards determining bet sizes and managing their bankroll. This involves allocating a sufficient bankroll to endure losing streaks and refraining from succumbing to the urge to recover losses by straying from a pre established betting pattern.
Summary
As you can see, a system that seems simple and profitable in theory does not have to be. In fact, it can be if you have a large enough bankroll and follow the rules. In my opinion, this system is simply absurd. I hope I’ve explained the system well enough for you to see that for yourself.
Although the use of a strategy when betting may make sense but the use of a due column strategy is completely devoid of statistical value.
Other systems that may interest you
I have described several systems that can be more effective than Due Column betting, the ones worth familiarizing yourself with are Trixie, the Fibonacci method, Yankee and Heinz.
